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Việc mua tàu ngầm và chiến đấu cơ của Việt Nam

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Thứ Hai, ngày 4-1-2010

Robert Karniol, Phóng viên Quốc phòng


Có một nguyên tắc cơ bản mà các nhà phân tích quốc phòng dễ dàng nhìn thấy: việc mua lại cỗ máy hay hệ thống tối tân không chắc sẽ chuyển đổi thành khả năng hiệu quả.

Việc trang bị vũ khí vào năm 1997 bằng chiếc hàng không mẫu hạm đầu tiên và duy nhất của Thái Lan, chiếc HTMS Chakri Naruebet, cho chúng ta thấy một cái nhìn đa chiều về quan điểm này. Hơn một thập kỷ sau, nó vẫn không thích hợp để hoạt động, một biểu tượng không có chủ tâm của sự phù phiếm được đặt không đúng chỗ.

Chuyện mua sắm bận rộn của quân đội Việt Nam cùng với việc lôi cuốn sự chú ý bằng các hoạt động mua bán nhộn nhịp mới đây không chắc là để chứng tỏ mức độ nhận thức kém cỏi như thế. Nhưng không phải cả hai đều không có vấn đề.

Sức mạnh khủng khiếp trong khoảng thời gian dài kể từ khi thành lập vào năm 1944, Quân đội Nhân dân Việt Nam (QĐNDVN) dường như bắt đầu kiệt quệ vào đầu thập niên 1990. Các đơn vị vũ trang đã mệt mỏi từ những cuộc giao tranh ở Cambodia, nền kinh tế đất nước có vẻ suy tàn và Moscow đã chấm dứt viện trợ.

Hà Nội phát động những cuộc cải cách kinh tế vào năm 1986 bằng một chương trình được biết đến dưới cái tên Đổi Mới, thoạt tiên đem tới những lợi ích khiêm tốn về mức độ tăng trưởng GDP và tiếp đến là một bước phát triển mạnh mẽ từ năm 2004. Việc mua sắm quốc phòng trong giai đoạn gần 20 năm qua đã bị chế ngự, để mặc cho QĐNDVN trong tình trạng lỗi thời với trang thiết bị phần lớn có từ thập niên 1960.

Thời này là thời kỳ điển hình về việc Hà Nội mua được những chiến đấu cơ mạnh về không chiến như Sukhoi Su-27, với mục đích hiện đại hóa lực lượng không quân. Hợp đồng đầu tiên của QĐNDVN liên quan tới sáu chiếc được mua vào năm 1995 so với hợp đồng đầu tiên của Trung Quốc được ký với 26 chiếc vào năm 1992, và sự khác nhau kể từ đó được tăng lên gấp bội.

Có lẽ đáng kể hơn, Trung Quốc giờ đây đã kết nối được những chiến đấu cơ hiện đại với loại phi cơ làm nhiệm vụ kiểm soát và cảnh báo sớm trên không (AEW&C), cần thiết cho hoạt động có hiệu quả của các chiến đấu cơ này trong một cuộc không chiến tổng hợp. Các chiến đấu cơ hiện đại của Việt Nam, thiếu vắng khả năng hợp đồng tác chiến mạnh mẽ này, thì nhanh hơn chút ít so với loại mà nó thay thế.

Việc sắm sửa quốc phòng của QĐNDVN trong vài thập kỷ qua là chắp vá và lẻ tẻ, điều này khó cho thấy có một sự tiến triển tự nhiên. Nhưng lấy lý do tăng trưởng kinh tế và thúc đẩy hơn nữa là lý do trang thiết bị của QĐNDVN ngày càng lỗi thời, Hà Nội càng tập trung vào việc hiện đại hóa lực lượng.

Nói chuyện cuối tháng qua nhân kỷ niệm 65 năm ngày thành lập QĐNDVN, Chủ tịch nước Nguyễn Minh Triết kêu gọi quân đội nhanh chóng hiện đại hóa. Vài tuần trước đó, trong dịp công bố sách trắng quốc phòng mới của Hà Nội, Thứ trưởng Bộ Quốc phòng Nguyễn Chí Vịnh có cùng đề nghị khi nói rằng hiện đại hoá quân đội sẽ có được tầm quan trọng hơn nếu nền kinh tế đất nước tiếp tục phát triển.

Cung cấp thêm nội dung cho những tuyên bố này, Thủ tướng Nguyễn Tấn Dũng đã đến Moscow cùng thời gian để hoàn thành việc mua sáu tàu ngầm hạng Kilo và 12 máy bay chiến đấu Su-30MKK. Cùng lúc đó, Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng Phùng Quang Thanh đã đến Pháp để tìm hiểu thêm máy bay trực thăng và máy bay vận tải, và đến Washington để nói chuyện với Hoa Kỳ nhằm giảm bớt những hạn chế về việc bán các mặt hàng quân sự.

Ngoài ra vào tháng trước, và đã được công bố, Hà Nội đạt thỏa thuận mua ba chiếc máy bay đổ bộ DHC-6 Series 400 từ Viking Air, Canada, loại máy bay dành cho những nước mới bắt đầu sử dụng máy bay hải quân trong vai trò tuần tra trên biển. Các nhiệm vụ sẽ được định tâm trên ra-đa đa hệ giám sát hàng hải, EL / M 2022 (V) 3, loại ra-đa do hãng Elta Electronics, Israel sản xuất, và việc giao hàng sẽ bắt đầu trong khoảng 12-18 tháng.

Máy bay tuần tra trên biển cùng với những chiếc tàu ngầm sẽ cho phép hải quân trở thành một lực lượng ba chiều.

‘Việt Nam mua lại sáu chiếc tàu ngầm loại Kilo trong sáu năm sắp tới sẽ là một thử thách vô cùng khó khăn. QĐNDVN chủ yếu là một lực lượng trên bộ với kinh nghiệm hạn chế trong việc phối hợp hoạt động trong không gian hai, ba chiều,’ giáo sư Carlyle Thayer, một chuyên gia nghiên cứu về Việt Nam tại Học viện Quốc phòng Úc ở Canberra đã nói.

‘Việt Nam cần phát triển một học thuyết hải quân để kết hợp các khả năng mà loại Kilos sẽ có được. Nhưng quan trọng hơn là nó cần phải sửa soạn cho một cam kết được duy trì liên tục các nguồn dự trữ – bao gồm cả chi phí tiền bạc bảo trì bảo dưỡng – làm cho tàu ngầm có đủ sức mạnh sẵn sàng chiến đấu. Một câu hỏi quan trọng đặt ra là thời kỳ chuyển tiếp sẽ kéo dài trong bao lâu kể từ khi mua tàu ngầm đến khi đưa tất cả các khả năng của nó vào cơ cấu lực lượng hiện có để sử dụng một cách hiệu quả.’

Giáo sư Thayer tiên đoán rằng QĐNDVN sẽ vươn lên với một khả năng ở mức giữa quân đội Singapore và Indonesia. Singapore đã hợp nhất một cách nhanh chóng và có hiệu quả những chiếc tàu ngầm của mình vào cơ cấu lực lượng hiện tại trong khi Indonesia thì thấy khó để mà bảo trì và chu cấp cho lực lượng dưới biển sâu.

Hầu hết những việc mua sắm khác có vẻ ít phức tạp hơn. Lấy ví dụ, QĐNDVN có kinh nghiệm với máy bay trực thăng tác chiến chống tàu ngầm, ngay cho dù Hà Nội có quyết định hiện đại hóa hạm đội hiện tại và thậm chí muốn chuyển sang các hoạt động đường biển bằng cách sử dụng hai tàu khu trục Gepard đang đặt hàng từ Nga. Tuy nhiên, việc hợp nhất máy bay AEW&C với máy bay chiến đấu và quân lính trên bộ – cứ cho là bước tiến triển giành cho lực lượng không quân này cuối cùng cũng được mở ra – sẽ là công việc chẳng dễ dàng chút nào.

Nhưng còn một yếu tố nữa để cân nhắc. Việc niện đại hóa quân đội được thực hiện từng bước theo thời gian sẽ cho phép lĩnh hội dễ dàng hơn những khả năng mới, trong khi QĐNDVN xem ra như thể được dọn cho một bữa ăn vội vàng.

 

Nguồn: http://www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/TooMUchTooSoon.htm

Người dịch: N.T.

Bản tiếng Việt © Ba Sàm 2010

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