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Đô đốc Lyons: đánh giá thấp Trung Quốc

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Đô đốc James A. Lyons

12-01-2010

Trong chuyến thăm Úc gần đây, Bí thư Hải quân, ông Ray Mabus làm nhẹ bớt mối đe dọa về việc nêu ra chuyện Trung Quốc nhanh chóng hiện đại hóa lực lượng quân sự của mình, đã nhấn mạnh trong sách trắng về quốc phòng của Úc năm 2009. Với mối đe dọa không xác đáng, chương trình hiện đại hóa lực lượng chưa từng thấy của Trung Quốc đã phát triển với tốc độ hai con số trong 10 năm qua.

Mặc dù Trung Quốc tuyên bố rằng việc hiện đại hóa lực lượng quân sự của họ không hề đe dọa ai cả và họ chỉ có mục đích phòng thủ, nhưng đó chỉ là thủ đoạn gian trá cổ điển của Trung Quốc. Mỗi hệ thống vũ khí mới Trung Quốc đã mua hoặc phát triển, được thiết kế đặc biệt nhắm mục tiêu hoặc đe dọa lực lượng quân sự Hoa Kỳ. Ví dụ, việc phát triển tên lửa đạn đạo chống tàu bè của Trung Quốc được thiết kế nhắm mục tiêu vào các tàu sân bay Mỹ - không phải nhắm vào các con tàu chở hàng hoá thương mại. Trung Quốc đã mua của Nga tên lửa hành trình Siêu âm thanh, SS-N-22 Sunburn, loại được thiết kế đặc biệt để tấn công tuần dương hạm và khu trục hạm Aegis. Nó đã tăng gấp ba lần số lượng tên lửa hành trình chiến đấu chống tàu bè trên mặt biển, lên tới 36.

Chương trình hiện đại hóa chiến lược của Trung Quốc gây nhiều ấn tượng. Bốn tên lửa hạt nhân mới – vài tên lửa có lẽ có nhiều đầu đạn – cùng với việc giải thích gần đây về tên lửa đạn đạo và chống vệ tinh có khả năng đánh chặn, thì không thể bỏ qua. Và cũng không thể bỏ qua việc Trung Quốc phát triển một máy bay ném bom chiến lược mới cùng với một máy bay chiến đấu thế hệ thứ năm.

Việc xây dựng các căn cứ tàu ngầm dưới đất được ghi nhận ở đảo Hải Nam, nơi có thể chứa cả loại tàu ngầm tấn công hạt nhân lẫn tàu ngầm chiến lược, điều này không thể không gây sự chú ý. Tính đến năm nay, Trung Quốc có thể có 60 tàu ngầm tấn công. Vị trí chiến lược của đảo Hải Nam cho phép tiến nhanh vào các đường biển quan trọng, dẫn tới vùng đông bắc châu Á và Úc, cộng thêm việc sẵn sàng tiến vào nhiều vùng biển rộng lớn ở Tây Thái Bình Dương. Điều kiện thuận lợi này, cùng với hành động bất hợp pháp của Trung Quốc đòi chủ quyền toàn bộ vùng Biển Nam Trung Hoa (Biển Đông) là một phần "vùng biển lịch sử của nó", phải là điều làm mọi người thức tỉnh. Hơn nữa, tuyên bố đơn phương về chủ quyền đối với quần đảo tranh chấp ở Biển Đông, bao gồm cả Hoàng Sa, Trường Sa, Senkaku và Đài Loan, cho thấy mục tiêu của Trung Quốc là thống trị của một chuỗi đảo bao gồm Đài Loan. Đài Loan là chìa khóa để mở rộng sự thống trị ra chuỗi đảo thứ hai bao gồm Guam.

Sách trắng về Quốc phòng của Úc xác nhận rõ mối đe dọa của Trung Quốc đối với an ninh quốc gia Úc và cũng nhấn mạnh những tác động xấu có thể có đối với lực lượng hải quân và thuỷ quân lục chiến Hoa Kỳ ở Tây Thái Bình Dương. An ninh của Úc không chỉ dựa vào lực lượng quân sự độc lập của chính nó, mà còn dựa vào trụ cột chiến lược cung cấp bởi đồng minh quan trọng nhất của mình là Hoa Kỳ. Vì lý do đó, Úc đang quan tâm tới việc Hoa Kỳ giảm các lực lượng chiến lược và thiếu chương trình hiện đại hóa. Việc mở rộng sự che chở chiến lược của Hoa Kỳ thì quan trọng đối với Úc, cũng như đối với các bạn bè khác của chúng ta và các đồng minh trong khu vực, bao gồm Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc.

Theo báo cáo, ông Mabus nói rằng những thách thức trước mắt để ổn định Thái Bình Dương không xuất phát từ việc phát triển sức mạnh hải quân Trung Quốc, nhưng từ mối đe dọa về cướp biển, khủng bố và đánh cá bất hợp pháp. Quan điểm này phản ánh rõ ràng là chiến lược mới của chính quyền Obama không chuẩn bị cho các cuộc xung đột lớn, và đây là một thảm họa. Hơn nữa, nó củng cố việc Trung Quốc tuyên truyền rằng việc hiện đại hóa của họ chỉ với mục đích phòng thủ. Trung Quốc tiếp tục tuyên bố rằng họ đã cam kết không bao giờ gây hấn với bất kỳ ai. Việc tuyên truyền này được những người ủng hộ Trung Quốc lặp đi lặp lại, cộng thêm một dòng được cho là của Henry Kissinger rằng "Chủ nghĩa đế quốc quân sự không phải là phong cách của Trung Quốc". Nhưng sau đó là sự xâm lược của Trung Quốc ở Tây Tạng, Việt Nam, Ấn Độ, Nga và Biển Đông, chắc chắn là không bình thường.

Chủ nghĩa đế quốc Trung Quốc sẽ vươn xa thêm bao nhiêu nữa, khi nào, vào cuối thập niên này, nó có thể có nhiều tàu sân bay, phát triển hải quân với các tàu lưỡng cư lớn, có vũ khí hạt nhân gần như tương đương [với Hoa Kỳ], tổng thống thành công với việc Hoa Kỳ cắt giảm vũ khí có đầu đạn hạt nhân thêm nữa, và việc [Trung Quốc] gia tăng số lượng máy bay chiến đấu thế hệ thứ năm? Không những hình ảnh này làm một số đồng minh Úc của chúng tôi lo lắng, mà việc chính quyền Obama từ chối xem xét Trung Quốc gia tăng mức độ phát triển sự đe doạ như thế nào [cũng làm chúng tôi lo lắng].

Tôi đồng ý với ông Mabus rằng cam kết của chúng tôi ở  khu vực Tây Thái Bình Dương vẫn là tuyệt đối. Nhiều chương trình cần được hỗ trợ để tăng cường sự cam kết vượt quá ngân sách Hải quân.

Việc mua bán đã được công bố gần đây của chúng tôi về hệ thống vũ khí phòng thủ Patriot cho Đài Loan là một khởi đầu tốt, nhưng nhiều việc cần phải làm hơn. Đài Loan cũng có nhu cầu mua máy bay chiến đấu F-16 bây giờ, sau đó là loại F-35 thế hệ thứ năm cuối thập kỷ này, và tàu ngầm. Chúng tôi không bao giờ để cho Trung Quốc khoác lác - như Trung Quốc đe dọa việc chấm dứt sự “hỗ trợ” gần như là vô dụng của họ để kết thúc chương trình hạt nhân của Iran và Bắc Triều Tiên – ngăn sự giúp đỡ của Mỹ đối với nước dân chủ Đài Loan. Ngân sách Hải quân cần có để tài trợ cho một tàu sân bay thứ 12, cộng thêm nguồn tài trợ cho lực lượng chính của hải quân trên mặt biển, gắn liền với các khả năng của tàu khu trục loại Zumwalt để chống lại các mối đe doạ biết được và các mối đe doạ trong tương lai.


Không giống như ông Mabus, tôi có thể nhìn thấy rõ ràng rằng Trung Quốc là một mối đe dọa thực sự và đang phát triển đối với lực lượng hải quân Mỹ tại châu Á, cũng như đối với đồng minh và bạn bè của Hoa Kỳ như Đài Loan và [còn là mối đe doạ] đối với sự tự do di chuyển trong các vùng hàng hải và bên ngoài. Chối bỏ những sự thật này sẽ không làm cho Trung Quốc biến mất và sẽ không gây ấn tượng với các đồng minh của chúng tôi.


Đô đốc Hải quân đã nghỉ hưu, ông James A. Lyons, là tổng tư lệnh Hạm đội Thái Bình Dương Hoa Kỳ và đại diện cao cấp của quân đội Mỹ tại Liên Hợp Quốc.


Người dịch: Ngọc Thu

Dịch từ: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/12/underestimating-china/

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