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Điện mật Sứ quán Mỹ tại Manila: Tranh chấp lãnh thổ quần đảo Trường Sa

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Sự gia tăng giá dầu và các quy định của Công ước luật biển khiến các nước tranh chấp Trường Sa tích cực và việc này trở thành tâm điểm của các tranh luận công khai tại Philippines. Tranh chấp Trường Sa làm dấy lên tinh thần dân tộc ở Philippines, vừa do nhận thức việc lực lượng vũ trang không thể bảo vệ chủ quyền, và vừa do những lo ngại về ảnh hưởng ngày càng gia tăng của Trung Quốc.


Chủ đề: Tranh chấp lãnh thổ quần đảo Trường Sa

Xuất xứ: Đại sứ quán Mỹ tại Manila (Philippine)

Thời gian phát điện: Thứ sáu, ngày 01/08/2008 (08h26'UTC)

Thời gian công bố:Thứ năm, ngày 01/09/2011 (23h24'UTC)

Phân loại: Điện mật

1.Tóm tắt: Sự gia tăng giá xăng dầu gần đây và thời hạn chờ đợi đệ trình theo quy định của Công ước luật biển Quốc tế (UNCLOS) đang đến gần đã khiến 5 quốc gia có tranh chấp lãnh thổ liên quan đến quần đảo Trường Sa trở thành tâm điểm của cuộc tranh luận công khai tại Philippines. Sự tranh cãi quanh quần đảo Trường Sa làm dấy lên một tinh thần tự hào dân tộc ở Philippines, vừa do nhận thức việc lực lượng vũ trang của Philippines không thể bảo vệ các yêu sách chủ quyền của Philippine đối với các hòn đảo, và vừa do những lo ngại về ảnh hưởng ngày càng gia tăng của Trung Quốc trong khu vực. Thêm vào đó, có những nghi ngờ lan rộng về việc tham nhũng cũng có thể ảnh hưởng đến chính sách của Philippines. Các quan điểm trái ngược nhau về vấn đề liệu Phillipines có thể bảo vệ các tuyên bố chủ quyền của mình đối với các hòn đảo mạnh đến mức nào thường có gắn bó mật thiết với các đảng phái chính trị. Trong một động thái mà ít nhất nhằm xoa dịu phần nào những chỉ trích nặng nề hơn về việc nước này hợp tác với Trung Quốc và Việt Nam trong vấn đề khai thác tài nguyên khoáng sản ở Trường Sa, chính phủ của bà Arroyo đã đồng ý để Thỏa thuận Khảo sát Địa chấn chung (JMSU) với các nước này mất giá trị khi nó hết hiệu lực vào ngày 30 tháng 6.
Hết tóm tắt.

Bối cảnh

2. Quần đảo Trường Sa thuộc Biển Đông là đối tượng của các tuyên bố chủ quyền chồng chéo giữa Trung Quốc, Philippines, Việt Nam, Đài Loan, Malaysia và Brunei đối với nhiều hòn đảo mà người ta cho rằng rất giàu tài nguyên thiên nhiên – chủ yếu là dầu mỏ, khí gas, và các loại hải sản. Quần đảo Trường Sa bao gồm khoảng từ 100 tới 230 hòn đảo nhỏ, đảo san hô, rặng san hô và mỏm đá ngầm trải rộng trên một diện tích hơn 250,000 kilomet vuông, mặc dù tổng diện tích đất của cả chuỗi đảo chỉ chưa đầy 5 kilomet vuông. Vào năm 1988 và 1992, các tranh chấp về chủ quyền tại đây đã dẫn tới xung đột hải quân trên biển giữa Trung Quốc và Việt Nam. Tuyên bố của các bên về các ứng xử ở Biển Đông (DOC) giữa ASEAN và Trung Quốc năm 2002 cũng đã xoa dịu các xung đột trong khu vực thông qua việc kêu gọi sự kiềm chế, hợp tác và từ bỏ sử dụng vũ lực giữa các bên.

Căng thẳng trong khu vực về vấn đề Trường Sa leo thang

3. Tháng 9 năm 2004, các công ty dầu khí quốc gia của Philippines và Trung Quốc đã đồng ý tiến hành thăm dò địa chấn âm thanh tại Biển Đông. Vào tháng 3 năm 2005, Hiệp ước Thăm dò Địa chấn Hải dương chung (JMSU) giữa Trung Quốc, Việt Nam, và Philippines đã kết hợp việc “tiền thăm dò” khẳ năng các nguồn dự trữ hydrocarbon, và một hợp đồng độc quyền được trao cho một công ty nhà nước của Trung Quốc để tiến hành các cuộc thăm dò. Tuy nhiên, tranh chấp không dịu đi. Vào tháng 4 năm 2007, Trung Quốc cáo buộc Việt Nam vi phạm chủ quyền nước này khi cho phép một nhóm công ty năng lượng, đứng đầu là công ty BP của Anh Quốc hoạt động ở các mỏ khí đốt ngoài khơi bờ biển phía nam Việt Nam, và vào tháng 7 năm 2007, tàu hải quân Trung Quốc đã nổ súng vào một tàu cá của Việt Nam, khiến 1 thủy thủ thiệt mạng.

Công ước Luật biển của Liên hợp quốc

4. Philippines, cùng với Brunei, Malaysia và Việt Nam, có những tuyên bố chủ quyền chống lấn ở một vài điểm hoặc toàn bộ quần đảo Trường Sa theo Công ước Luật biển Liên Hợp Quốc (UNCLOS). Theo UNCLOS, Philippines phải xác định đường cơ sở lãnh thổ của quần đảo Philippine trước ngày 12 tháng 5 năm 2009. Vấn đề đối với Philippines là liệu có nên đưa quần đảo Trường Sa vào bên trong đường cơ sở theo Công ước luật biển hay không, hay là nên quy định giới hạn đường cơ sở như trong Hiệp ước Paris 1898, khi Tây Ban Nha chuyển giao Philippines cho Mỹ sau chiến tranh Mỹ-Tây Ban Nha. Kể cả trong trường hợp thứ 2, theo UNCLOS, Philippines vẫn có vùng Đặc quyền kinh tế 200 hải lý và có thể yêu sách vùng thềm lục địa mở rộng tới 350 hải lý; như vậy sẽ bao trùm lên gần như toàn bộ quần đảo Trường Sa. Thậm chí vùng đặc quyền kinh tế EEZ 200 hải lý của Philippines cũng bao gồm hầu hết các đảo, trong khi vùng EEZ 200 hải lý của Trung Quốc, Đài Loan, và Việt Nam chỉ bao gồm rất ít hoặc không có đảo nào.

Con bài của Trung Quốc

5. Những vụ bê bối tham nhũng gần đây liên quan đến đầu tư và viện trợ phát triển của Trung Quốc đã lan rộng và ảnh hưởng đến cuộc tranh luận đối về Trường Sa. Vào tháng 9 năm 2007, xuất hiện các cáo buộc rằng chồng của Tổng thống Arroyo, ông Mike Arroyo đã nhận khoản hối lộ nhiều triệu Đô la từ Trung Quốc để đổi lại việc hậu thuẫn cho một hợp đồng viễn thông trị giá 349 triệu đô giữa Tập đoàn ZTE của Trung Quốc và Công ty Mạng băng thông Broadband quốc gia (NBN) của Philippines; bản hợp đồng này sau đó nhanh chóng bị hủy bỏ (sẽ có điện riêng B). Vụ bê bối này cùng với các vụ khác gần đây liên quan đến Trung Quốc đã dẫn tới việc có những cáo buộc tại Quốc hội và các phương tiện thông tin đại chúng rằng chính phủ của bà Arroyo hình như đã chấp thuận Hiệp ước Thăm dò Địa chấn Hải dương chung nhằm đổi lại những khoản vay tham nhũng, và rằng nỗ lực của chính phủ nhằm làm cho Quốc hội rút lại ý định cho quần đảo Trường Sa vào trong đường cơ sở của Philippines cũng là do vận động ảnh hưởng ngầm của Bắc Kinh.

Vào khoảng giữa tháng 5, những báo cáo xuất hiện trên các phương tiện truyền thông quốc gia nêu việc có những manh mối nhân chứng liên quan đến các cuộc gặp bí mật trong năm 2006 tại Thẩm Quyến giữa Tổng thống Arroyo và các quan chức ZTE, nhằm giữ góc độ của Trung Quốc trong cuộc tranh luận trước mắt của công chúng. Cuộc tranh cãi tương tự cũng đã tác động đến dự án đường sắt Bắc Luzon (North Luzon Railway) do Trung Quốc đầu tư tài chính và hợp đồng, dự án bao gồm việc xây dựng một tuyến đường sắt dài 80kilomet từ thủ đô Manila tới cảng miễn thuế Clark. Tranh chấp Trung Quốc- Philippines đã dẫn tới một kết quả là việc xây dựng đã bị ngừng lại trong tháng 3.

Ba phương pháp tiếp cận khác nhau

6. Vào tháng 8 năm 2007, Thượng nghị sĩ, Antonia Trillanes đã đệ trình dự luật số 1467 lên Thượng viện Philippine, xác định đường cơ sở của Philippines bao gồm quần đảo chính như được mô tả trong Hiệp ước Paris 1898 (Philippines ngày nay) cộng với Bãi đá Hoàng Nham (bãi đá Scarborough), trong khi xác định quần đảo Trường Sa thuộc “quy chế đảo” bên ngoài đường cơ sở. Tuy nhiên, theo dự luật 3216 của Hạ viện Philippine tháng 12 năm 2007, do Chủ tịch Ủy ban Đối ngoại Hạ viện, Nghị sĩ Antonio Cuenco đã đệ trình, đường cơ sở của Philippines có thể không chỉ bao gồm quần đảo chính (theo Hiệp ước Paris) mà còn cả quần đảo Trường Sa và bãi đá Scarborough (Hoàng Nham). Ông Cuenco công khai nói rằng, tháng 12 năm 2007, Trung Quốc đã đưa ra một lời cảnh báo miệng với Đại sứ quán Philippines tại Bắc Kinh bày tỏ sự “bất ngờ và quan ngại” với việc dự luật của ông (Cuenco) khi xác định đường cơ sở của Philippines bao gồm cả quần đảo Trường Sa.

Lo sợ rằng việc đưa quần đảo Trường Sa vào đường cơ sở của Philippines sẽ khiêu khích Trung Quốc, làm bùng phát căng thẳng tại Biển Đông và phá hỏng nguyên trạng, chính phủ của bà Arroyo theo đuổi cách tiếp cận thứ ba, buộc Quốc hội Philippine xem lại vấn đề đường cơ sở và chỉ giới hạn ở quần đảo chính, bỏ lại quần đảo Trường Sa, và bãi Hoàng Nham được phân loại như “Chế độ quần đảo”. Những người ủng hộ chính phủ lập luận rằng Philippines sẽ không có hy vọng chiến thắng trong một cuộc chiến chống lại Trung Quốc.

Cuộc loạn đả ở quốc hội

7. Chuyến thăm được loan báo rộng rãi ngày 2 tháng 2 vừa qua tới Trường Sa của Tổng thống Đài Loan Trần Thủy Biển lại khơi lên những tranh luận về quần đảo này (có điện riêng C). Trong tháng 3, chỉ huy trưởng lực lượng không quân Philippines, trung tướng Pedrito Cadungog thông báo rằng sân bay trên đảo Pagasa (được biết đến với tên là Đảo Thị tứ (Việt Nam) và đảo Trung Nghiệp (Trung Quốc)), nơi đặt một căn cứ quân sự của Philippines và một khu dân cư với hơn 300 người Philippines, sẽ được nâng cấp. Sau đó, tham mưu truởng các lực lượng vũ trang, tướng Hermogenes Esperon nhấn mạnh rằng sự hiện diện quân sự mạnh mẽ của Philipines ở các đảo sẽ đảm bảo việc sẵn sàng bảo vệ chủ quyền của Philippine.

Mặc dù dự luật của hạ nghị sĩ Cuenco bao gồm cả Trường Sa và Hoàng Nham đã bị gác lại vào ngày 21 tháng 4 do sự phản đối từ chính tác giả của nó, ngày 22 tháng 4, lãnh đạo phe dân tộc thiểu số trong nghị viện Aquilino Pimentel đã gọi việc chính phủ của bà Arroyo bỏ quần đảo Trường Sa ra ngoài đường cơ sở là bán nước và kêu gọi áp dụng dự luật của Hạ viện với toàn bộ các đảo. Đối thoại sau đó có lẽ đã đạt được một phần nhỏ mục tiêu này, khi những nghị sĩ ủng hộ chính phủ (và ứng viên Tòa án Công lý Quốc tế) Miriam Defensor Santiago chỉ trích các hạ nghị sĩ “hãy ngậm miệng lại” (shooting their mouths of), và mỉa mai những nhà lập pháp chống đối chính phủ trong tranh luận về Trường Sa như là “những kẻ ngốc”.

Phản ứng của đại sứ quán (Mỹ): Trung lập

8. Khi các phương tiện truyền thông của Philippines hỏi về quan điểm của Mỹ trong vấn đề Trường Sa, đại sứ và các quan chức chính phủ Mỹ khác đều nhấn mạnh rằng Mỹ không phải là một bên trong tranh chấp lãnh thổ ở khu vực này, và rằng chúng tôi hi vọng những xung đột như vậy sẽ được giải quyết một cách hòa bình giữa các bên liên quan và phù hợp với luật pháp quốc tế. Ví dụ, tại buổi khai mạc cuộc diễn tập hải quân “Sẵn sàng hợp tác và huấn luyện” (CARAT) giữa Mỹ và Philippines ngày 26 tháng 5 tại Puerto Princesa trên Đảo Palawan, các phương tiện truyền thông quốc gia thúc ép Đề đốc Hải quân Nora Tson và tùy viên báo chí của Đại sứ quán về việc liệu sự hiện diện của lực lượng hải quân hùng mạnh của Mỹ (5 tàu chiến, bao gồm 2 tàu dẫn tên lửa) ở khu vực quần đảo Trường Sa có cho thấy rằng Mỹ ủng hộ tuyên bố chủ quyền của Philippines và có ý định hỗ trợ nước này bảo vệ những tuyên bố này hay không. Chúng tôi thận trọng trả lời rằng mục tiêu của tập trận hải quân song phương trong câu hỏi là để xây dựng khả năng tương tác và hợp tác song phương, rằng cuộc tập trận sẽ không diễn ra trong khu vực Trường Sa, và rằng Mỹ kêu gọi các bên yêu sách giải quyết hòa bình vấn đề này.

Bình luận.

9. Cuộc tranh luận về quần đảo Trường Sa cho thấy một phần trong bế tắc chiến lược của Chính quyền Arroyo. Chủ nghĩa dân tộc của người Philippines và sự nghi ngờ về ý đồ của Trung Quốc trong khu vực này thúc đẩy chính phủ có những động thái hiếu chiến hơn trong việc thực thi chủ quyền của Philippines ở những đảo này, và cách dùng các khái niệm của UNCLOS cũng nhằm hỗ trợ một quan điểm như vậy. Vì những lý do nêu trên, chính quyền Arroyo có ít lựa chọn ngoài việc để JMSU hết hiệu lực khi nó hết thời hạn vào ngày 30 tháng 6, mặc dù làm vậy có thể gây ra bất lợi cho quan hệ của họ với Trung Quốc. Mặt khác, Philippines là bên yếu hơn trong mối quan hệ bất đối xứng với Trung Quốc, và lực lượng quân đội của Philippines đang hoạt động hiệu quả trong việc giải quyết các tổ chức phản động trong nước lại không quan tâm gì tới việc tăng cường khả năng tác chiến bên ngoài lãnh thổ ở Biển Đông. Rõ ràng là lợi ích cốt yếu nhất của Philippines không phải ở chỗ để cho căng thẳng ở Biển Đông leo thang tới mức xung đột quân sự. Đối mặt với bối cảnh giá dầu tăng và nhu cầu về các nguồn dự trữ năng lượng ngoài khơi cũng gia tăng, cuộc tranh chấp về quyền kiểm soát các nguồn lợi ở Trường Sa có lẽ sẽ vẫn tiếp diễn.

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