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Trung Quốc sẽ tiếp tục trì hoãn Bộ Quy tắc Ứng xử ở Biển Đông?

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Từ lâu, ASEAN và Trung Quốc đã tiến hành thảo luận nhằm cho ra đời Bộ Quy tắc Ứng xử ở Biển Đông (COC) để kiềm chế căng thẳng do tranh chấp Biển Đông. Tuy nhiên, theo báo "Bưu điện Hoa nam Buổi sáng", thỏa thuận này giờ đây đang gặp nguy hiểm. 

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Nếu Trung Quốc đang tìm mọi cớ để gác qua một bên những cuộc thương lượng với ASEAN về tình trạng căng thẳng đang diễn biến ngày một tồi tệ ở Biển Đông thì những hành động của Philíppin trong tuần qua có lẽ sẽ tạo cho họ thêm một cái cớ. Động thái của Manila sử dụng Công ước Liên hợp quốc về Luật năm biển 1982 - nhằm tìm kiếm một phán quyết của Tòa trọng tài quốc tế về tuyên bố chủ quyền gây tranh cãi của Trung Quốc đối với gần như toàn bộ Biển Đông - là khá táo bạo, chuẩn bị cho tiến trình pháp lý kéo dài vài năm nhằm phơi bày những điều không được Bắc Kinh, vốn ngày càng quyết tâm vẽ lại bản đồ khu vực theo ý đồ của họ, hoan nghênh. Theo các chuyên gia nắm rõ tiến trình đàm phán COC, hành động của Philíppin có thể cũng làm phức tạp thêm tình trạng căng thẳng giữa Trung Quốc và ASEAN, gây nguy hiểm hơn cho các cuộc thương lượng đã bị trì hoãn về một bộ quy tắc ứng xử. Bộ quy tắc này được cho là một sự ràng buộc, được xây dựng dựa trên Tuyên bố về ứng xử của các bên ở Biển Đông (DOC - được ký giữa Trung Quốc và ASEAN năm 2002). Mặc dù năm mới 2013 đã bắt đầu với việc một số nhân vật quan trọng của ASEAN, trong đó có tân Tổng Thư ký Lê Lương Minh, nói về tầm quan trọng của bộ quy tắc này, song có ít dấu hiệu cho thấy những cuộc thương lượng cụ thể với Trung Quốc sẽ sớm được bắt đầu. 

Những quốc gia thành viên ASEAN như Inđônêxia và Xinhgapo, cũng như các đối thủ tuyên bố chủ quyền của Trung Quốc trên Biển Đông như Việt Nam và Philíppin, rất mong muốn có một bộ quy tắc như vậy, nhưng các nước thành viên ASEAN khác lại không mấy thiết tha. Và đương nhiên, Trung Quốc là nước thận trọng, đề phòng nhất trong vấn đề này. Đối với tất cả các cuộc đàm phán về COC, Bắc Kinh đã thẳng thừng "đạp đổ" với tư cách cá nhân, đi đầu là Thứ trưởng Ngoại giao Phó Oánh, với lý do rằng Trung Quốc lo ngại sâu sắc về một số diễn biến. Những lo ngại của họ xuất phát từ sự can dự của những nước bên ngoài Biển Đông - được hiểu là Mỹ và Nhật Bản - vào vấn đề này, việc ASEAN tăng cường quốc tế hóa vấn đề và những nỗ lực liên tục của ASEAN nhằm đưa ra một bản dự thảo COC của riêng ASEAN trong các cuộc thảo luận với Trung Quốc. Sau đó, Trung Quốc lại nói rằng họ quan ngại về những vi phạm đối với DOC, điều bị các nước ASEAN có tuyên bố chủ quyền ở Biển Đông bác bỏ.

Trong bối cảnh những căng thẳng ở hậu trường như vậy, nước cờ mới đây của Manila có thể cho phép Trung Quốc trì hoãn thêm các cuộc thương lượng bằng cách tuyên bố rằng thời gian hoàn toàn chưa chín muồi. Các quan chức Philíppin khẳng định họ vẫn tuân theo lộ trình của ASEAN, nhưng họ cũng nói rằng Manila đang bị dồn vào một góc sau 18 năm ngoại giao song phương với Bắc Kinh về vấn đề tranh chấp biển đảo, một vấn đề chỉ khiến chủ quyền của họ ngày càng bị nguy hiểm hơn. Một quan chức Philíppin nhấn mạnh: “Với việc chủ quyền của chúng tôi bị đe dọa trực tiếp, ở một số điểm chúng tôi phải hành động để bảo vệ các lợi ích quốc gia của chúng tôi và điểm đó đã xuất hiện. Đó là tìm kiếm giải pháp lâu bền và chúng tôi cảm thấy chúng tôi không thể chờ đợi lâu hơn nữa”. Ngay cả trước khi Manila có động thái kiện Trung Quốc lên Tòa án quốc tế, các nhà ngoại giao ASEAN nói rằng đến năm 2015 hoặc lâu hơn chưa chắc đã có bộ quy tắc ứng xử. Thậm chí, ngay cả khi một văn kiện như vậy ra đời, nó cũng không có tác dụng gì hơn tuyên bố năm 2002. 

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