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(GDVN) - Mặc dù các cuộc thảo luận giữa Trung Quốc với các thành viên ASEAN về Biển Đông trong năm 2013 đã được khởi động, nhưng chắc chắn Trung Quốc sẽ tiếp tục hoãn binh, dây dưa và cuối cùng là phủ quyết bất kỳ quy định nào hạn chế và ràng buộc

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Lương Quang Liệt, Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng Trung Quốc sắp mãn nhiệm được cho là người theo đuổi quan điểm hung hăng trên các vùng biển tranh chấp

 

Chuyên gia Storey nghiên cứu tại Viện nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á của Singapore, tác giả cuốn "Đông Nam Á và sự trỗi dậy của Trung Quốc: Tìm kiếm an ninh" nhận định, trong năm 2013 Bắc Kinh sẽ tiếp tục đẩy mạnh chính sách chia rẽ nội khối ASEAN trong vấn đề Biển Đông và nếu Bắc Kinh cứ tiếp tục những gì họ đang làm thì chuyện xảy ra xung đột trên Biển Đông là điều khó tránh.

 

Trong vài năm gần đây  tranh chấp chủ quyền trên Biển Đông luôn là vấn đề gây chia rẽ nội bộ ASEAN bởi những "chính sách cơ bắp" mà Bắc Kinh theo đuổi để củng cố cho tuyên bố chủ quyền của mình. Bắc Kinh chứng minh rằng nó đã thành công trong việc tạo ra sự chia rẽ và khai thác triệt để sự chia rẽ này, điều đó sẽ khiến cho Brunei gặp nhiều khó khăn hơn khi đảm nhiệm vai trò Chủ tịch luân phiên ASEAN năm 2013.

 

Do lợi ích khác nhau giữa các quốc gia thành viên cũng như mối quan hệ khác nhau của mỗi nước ASEAN với Trung Quốc nên quan điểm của các quốc gia này đối với tranh chấp Biển Đông cũng khác nhau. 

 

Trong khi tranh chấp Biển Đông là vấn đề nổi cộm, mối quan tâm lớn của Philippines và Việt Nam thì dường như Malaysia và Brueni, hai nước có tuyên bố chủ quyền với 1 phần quần đảo Trường Sa (thuộc chủ quyền Việt Nam - PV) có phần giảm nhẹ hơn. 

 

Indonesia và Singapore đã kêu gọi Trung Quốc cung cấp các luận cứ pháp lý cho các tuyên bố chủ quyền của họ. Tuy nhiên, Thái Lan, Lào, Myanma và Campuchia không có liên quan trực tiếp tới tranh chấp chủ quyền Biển Đông và những nước này cũng không muốn quan hệ của họ với Bắc Kinh bị sứt mẻ vì chỉ vì dám nêu lên vấn đề Biển Đông trước cộng đồng ASEAN.

 

Vì vậy, có thể thấy rằng một "mẫu số chung nhỏ nhất" - sự đồng thuận tại ASEAN chỉ đóng vai trò cần thiết cho hòa bình và ổn định ở Biển Đông, khó hy vọng tổ chức này có thể đóng vai trò nào đó mạnh mẽ hơn trong giải quyết tranh chấp, Storey nhận định.

 

Một năm Campuchia đảm nhiệm vai trò Chủ tịch luân phiên ASEAN, Bắc Kinh đã cho thấy sự thành công của nó trong việc gây ảnh hưởng, "khống chế" lập trường chung của toàn khối trong vấn đề Biển Đông.

 

Campuchia đã ngả hẳn về phía Trung Quốc trong vấn đề Biển Đông bất chấp lợi ích chung của cả khối ASEAN khiến cho lần đầu tiên 1 hội nghị Ngoại trưởng của khối ASEAN hồi tháng 7 năm ngoái không thể ra được tuyên bố chung sau 45 năm thành lập và điều này lại suýt nữa thì lặp lại vào tháng 11/2012.

 

Brunei rõ ràng đang rất quan tâm việc làm thế nào để quốc gia này có thể tránh được một "sai lầm đáng xấu hổ" như trên khi đảm nhiệm vai trò Chủ tịch luân phiên ASEAN năm 2013. Quốc gia này sẽ phải vận dụng tất cả các kỹ năng ngoại giao có thể để giữ lấy sự đồng thuận nội khối ASEAN trong khi phải làm sao tránh để Bắc Kinh phật ý.

 

Vấn đề đặt ra ở đây là Trung Quốc đang ngày càng gia tăng sự hiện diện quân sự cũng như bán quân sự trên Biển Đông, "bắt nạt" các bên tranh chấp khác trên mặt trận ngoại giao.

 

Trong khi các bên liên quan như Philippines và Việt Nam mong muốn ký kết Quy tắc ứng xử trên Biển Đông (COC) có tính ràng buộc pháp lý thay thế cho Tuyên bố chung của các bên trên Biển Đông (DOC) ký năm 2002 giữa ASEAN và Trung Quốc không có gì ràng buộc thì Trung Quốc lại liên tục lần nữa, trì hoãn "vì thời gian chưa phù hợp".

 

Rõ ràng là Bắc Kinh đang tập trung vào việc thực hiện một thỏa thuận không ràng buộc, bản DOC năm 2002 nhằm mục đích tiếp tục các động thái leo thang trên Biển Đông. Thái độ "cứng đầu" của Trung Quốc trên Biển Đông không phải điều gì đáng ngạc nhiên, nó được tính toán kỹ với sự phát triển sức mạnh kinh tế và quân sự của mình để ép buộc các bên liên quan phải chấp nhận yêu sách của Trung Quốc.

 

Sự thành công của Bắc Kinh trong việc "kiểm soát" lập trường chung của ASEAN về Biển Đông thông qua con bài Campuchia sẽ củng cố sự tự tin của Trung Quốc và khuyến khích nước này tiếp tục theo đuổi mục tiêu ấy - chia rẽ nội khối ASEAN trong vấn đề Biển Đông.

 

Mặc dù các cuộc thảo luận giữa Trung Quốc với các thành viên ASEAN về Biển Đông trong năm 2013 đã được khởi động, nhưng chắc chắn Trung Quốc sẽ tiếp tục hoãn binh, dây dưa và cuối cùng là phủ quyết bất kỳ quy định nào hạn chế và ràng buộc các hoạt động leo thang tuyên bố chủ quyền của Trung Quốc trên Biển Đông, việc cho ra bản Quy tắc ứng xử của các bên trên Biển Đông (COC) là điều rất khó thành hiện thực.

 

Chia rẽ nội khối ASEAN về vấn đề Biển Đông không chỉ tạo cơ hội cho Bắc Kinh tiếp tục leo thang mà còn là nước cờ hiểm đối phó với chiến lược Mỹ quay trở lại châu Á - Thái Bình Dương. Một khi ASEAN cho thấy tổ chức này không có khả năng giải quyết các vấn đề an ninh lớn như tranh chấp chủ quyền Biển Đông, Washington có thể sẽ mất nhiệt tình trong việc hỗ trợ các nước này đối phó với các nguy cơ từ Trung Quốc.

 

Xung đột trên Biển Đông là điều không thể tránh khỏi, chuyên gia Storey nhận định. Nếu ngăn chặn được một cuộc đụng độ ngẫu nhiên trên Biển Đông thì hiện trạng sẽ tiếp tục duy trì trong năm 2013 và những va chạm sẽ gia tăng trong các hoạt động khai thác dầu khí và đánh bắt cá trên các vùng biển tranh chấp.

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