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Chuyển biến ý thức về biển Đông

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Ông Lê Vĩnh Trương, thành viên Quỹ Nghiên cứu biển Đông, nhận định như vậy khi nói về việc Bộ Quy tắc ứng xử biển Đông có thể được ký kết tại Hội nghị ngoại trưởng ASEAN diễn ra từ ngày 19 đến 23-7 ở Bali, Indonesia

 

* Phóng viênÔng bình luận thế nào khi các nước trong khu vực ASEAN đều mong muốn ký kết Bộ Quy tắc ứng xử biển Đông (COC) tại Hội nghị ngoại trưởng ASEAN ở Bali từ ngày 19 đến 23-7?

- Ông Lê Vĩnh Trương: Đây là một bước chuyển biến mới về ý thức của ASEAN trước mối đe dọa ngày càng tăng của Trung Quốc. Tuy vậy, ASEAN cần một bước chuyển thực chất hơn nữa thay vì chỉ đi từ một DOC (Tuyên bố về cách ứng xử của các bên ở biển Đông) đến COC và rồi một văn bản nào khác trong tương lai.

 

Chúng ta quay lại DOC vốn dĩ chỉ có sức ràng buộc ước lệ và chưa hề luật hóa. Thực tế cho thấy từ tháng 1-2005 đến nay, Trung Quốc luôn là bên liên tục phá vỡ các nguyên tắc mà họ đã ký kết.
Thế nhưng, DOC luôn là bức bình phong để họ tranh chấp hóa các vùng không tranh chấp và yêu cầu các bên khác phải chấp nhận thế mạnh Pax Sinaca (hòa bình theo kiểu của Trung Quốc).
Đồng thời, Trung Quốc dùng chính DOC để “trói tay chân” các nước ký kết và lập lờ với nhân dân thế giới rằng tất cả các bên đều có thể đã vi phạm DOC. Còn trong nước thì Trung Quốc thường xuyên tuyên truyền với nhân dân mình rằng các nước tranh chấp khác là bên vi phạm DOC, còn họ là bên bảo vệ DOC.
Đừng quên rằng Trung Quốc vẫn ký kết các văn bản pháp luật quốc tế như UNCLOS (Công ước Liên Hiệp Quốc về Luật Biển) nhưng họ vẫn diễn dịch UNCLOS khác nhau ở biển Nhật Bản và biển Đông nhằm mục đích hưởng lợi tối đa.
ASEAN cần tận dụng DOC, COC, UNCLOS để duy trì hòa bình và ổn định trước một Trung Quốc luôn tận dụng các văn bản này làm lá chắn cho mình khi xâm lấn biển Đông.  

* Việt Nam nên có  thái độ như thế nào cho phù hợp nhằm đạt được đồng thuận với các nước trong ASEAN, thưa ông?

- Khó mà tìm kiếm một ASEAN đồng thuận 100% trong thế địa - chính trị biển Đông và cả sông Mê Kông. Lý do lớn là không phải tất cả các nước đều bị ảnh hưởng hay được hưởng lợi như nhau trong cùng một vấn đề. 
GS Vũ Cao Phan có nói quan hệ Trung - Việt sẽ không quan trọng bằng quan hệ Trung - A, Trung - B hay Trung - C và các nước sẽ hành xử trên cơ sở lợi ích của đất nước họ trước tiên.

Việt Nam cần tạo thế và kết lực bằng những biện pháp mềm như văn hóa, ngoại giao, truyền thông tích cực... Ảnh: TƯ LIỆU

 

Vấn đề của Việt Nam là làm sao cho các nước ASEAN thấy quan hệ Trung - Việt biến chuyển tiêu cực cũng sẽ ảnh hưởng không tích cực đến chính các nước này trong tương lai gần.
Muốn làm được điều này, chúng ta phải có những thuyết sách và thuyết khách bền bỉ, nhất quán đối với các nước trong khu vực; đồng thời tranh thủ trái tim, khối óc của nhân dân thế giới bằng một chiến lược truyền thông kiên trì.

* Philippines đã tỏ thái độ mạnh mẽ với sự xâm lấn của Trung Quốc ở khu vực biển của mình bằng cách ra tuyên bố sẽ kiện lên Tòa án Quốc tế về Luật Biển (ITLOS). Việt Nam thì sao?

- Theo tôi được biết, Philippines tuyên bố sẽ kiện Trung Quốc ra ITLOS mặc dù Trung Quốc đã bảo lưu quyền không ra tòa vì điều 298 của UNCLOS tồn tại những điều kiện cho sự bảo lưu như thế.
Có lẽ Philippines đã nghiên cứu về những điều kiện đó nhằm làm cho việc kiện của họ có tác dụng tối đa, cụ thể là làm giảm thiểu những gì Trung Quốc có thể trốn tránh và tăng tối đa cái giá mà Trung Quốc phải trả trước dư luận cho sự trốn tránh của mình. 
Các nhà hoạch định chính sách Việt Nam cũng nên nghiên cứu về hướng đó và hưởng ứng đề xuất của Philippines.
Ngoài ra, việc khiếu kiện một nước, dù đó là một cường quốc, ra tòa án quốc tế đã có một ý nghĩa dân chủ, bình đẳng mạnh mẽ của niềm tin vào công lý và cộng đồng quốc tế. Xét về lựa chọn này, tôi cho rằng Philippines đã thắng một điểm trong tư thế của một nước nhỏ nhưng dám đòi công chính. 
Đây là lý do nữa để Việt Nam hưởng ứng đề xuất của Philippines, nhất là sau khi Trung Quốc đã vi phạm UNCLOS trong việc cắt cáp tàu Bình Minh 02 và Viking II trong vùng đặc quyền kinh tế của mình.

* Việt Nam nên có những biện pháp nào để vừa bảo vệ được chủ quyền quốc gia vừa không làm ảnh hưởng đến mối quan hệ với Trung Quốc và các nước trong khu vực?

 - Việt Nam cần kiên trì đàm phán song phương về vấn đề Hoàng Sa, đa phương về tranh chấp Trường Sa và bảo vệ biển Đông.

Hoàng Sa đã bị Trung Quốc dùng vũ lực cưỡng chiếm từ tay chế độ Việt Nam Cộng hòa trước đây nên chúng ta cần yêu cầu đàm phán song phương. Trường Sa liên quan đến sự tuyên bố chủ quyền của nhiều nước, do vậy đây là vấn đề đa phương.
Biển Đông, ngoài các vùng nước thuộc quyền của từng quốc gia chiếu theo UNCLOS, là tài sản chung của thế giới và là con đường vận chuyển huyết mạch của các nước Nga, Mỹ, Nhật, Trung Quốc, Ấn Độ, Úc…
Vì vậy, cần phải có sự góp sức hạ nhiệt của tất cả các nước có liên quan. Việt Nam cần chú ý sức mạnh tổng hợp của toàn dân tộc và nâng cao 3 trụ cột chính là phát triển kinh tế, kiện toàn quân đội và sức mạnh mềm.
Bên cạnh đó, cần tạo thế và kết lực bằng những biện pháp mềm như văn hóa, ngoại giao, truyền thông tích cực để luôn có thể  vô hiệu hóa tất cả các ý đồ xâm lấn nhờ vào một mặt trận được tạo lập, gắn kết với toàn thế giới yêu chuộng hòa bình và chính nghĩa.

* Việt Nam nên làm gì để thể hiện cho Trung Quốc và thế giới thấy chính nghĩa và sức mạnh nội lực của mình?

- Tôi vẫn kiên trì quan điểm của mình là nâng cao ý thức, kiến thức và ý chí bảo vệ biển Đông một cách duy lý, khoa học. Tuy nhiên, ý kiến xuyên suốt cũng sẽ là kinh tế vững, quân sự mạnh, chính trị khoan hòa và tận dụng sức mạnh khối đại đoàn kết toàn dân; phát huy sức mạnh mềm, truyền thông tích cực đến nhân dân Việt Nam, nhân dân Trung Quốc cũng như toàn thế giới.

Theo NLĐ

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