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Biển Đông

Ngày 30/11/2012, hai tàu cá Trung Quốc đã cào cá tại tọa độ 17º26 Bắc và 108º02 Đông và cắt cáp thu nổ địa chấn của tàu khảo sát Bình Minh 02.

Địa điểm này nằm ngoài cửa Vịnh Bắc Bộ, cách Đảo Cồn Cỏ 43 hải lý, cách đất liền Việt Nam 54 hải lý, đảo Hải Nam 75 hải lý và quần đảo Hoàng Sa 210 hải lý.

Theo PetroVietnam thì điểm này nằm cách đường trung tuyến Việt-Trung 20 hải lý về phía Tây. Nếu dùng đường trung tuyến vạch với đảo Cồn Cỏ được 50% hiệu lực thì điểm này nằm cách đường trung tuyến này 12 hải lý.

Ngày 3/12/2012, Việt Nam trao công hàm phản đối cho Đại sứ quán Trung Quốc. Đáp lại, ngày 6/12/2012 Trung Quốc tuyên bố rằng cáo buộc của Việt Nam là không đúng sự thật.

Không phân định

Trung Quốc cho rằng đó là vùng biển có yêu sách chồng lấn của hai nước Việt Nam và Trung Quốc, tàu cá của Trung Quốc đang tác nghiệp đánh bắt cá bình thường tại vùng biển địa phương nhưng đã bị hải quân của Việt Nam xua đuổi. Trung Quốc cũng yêu cầu Việt Nam đình chỉ hoạt động thăm dò dầu khí “đơn phương” trên vùng biển này.

Tuy Vịnh Bắc Bộ đã được phân định giữa Việt Nam và Trung Quốc từ năm 2000, hiện nay Việt Nam và Trung Quốc còn đang đàm phán về khu vực ngoài cửa vịnh.

"Trong các yêu sách về biển, cách tiếp cận của Trung Quốc là đưa ra yêu sách mà không cần dựa trên cơ sở pháp lý."

Nếu cả hai nước đều là các quốc gia bình thường, tôn trọng lẽ phải, thì ranh giới biển trong khu vực này sẽ là đường trung tuyến, có thể được đơn giản hóa hay điều chỉnh chút ít. Nếu việc phân định này được đưa ra một trọng tài quốc tế thì không có nghi ngờ gì là ranh giới biển cũng sẽ là đường trung tuyến, có thể được đơn giản hóa hay điều chỉnh chút ít.

Nhưng với Trung Quốc thì có ít nhất hai yếu tố đặc biệt.

Yếu tố thứ nhất, trong các yêu sách về biển, cách tiếp cận của Trung Quốc là đưa ra yêu sách mà không cần dựa trên cơ sở pháp lý.

Trong quá khứ, khi đàm phán phân định Vịnh Bắc Bộ, Trung Quốc đòi 50% diện tích mà không đưa ra cơ sở cho đòi hỏi đó. Nếu chia Vịnh Bắc Bô theo bất cứ đường trung tuyến hợp lý nào thì Việt Nam cũng sẽ được nhiều hơn 50% khá nhiều. Cuối cùng Việt Nam được 53%, Trung Quốc được 47%.

Có lẽ đó là một sự dung hòa giữa yêu sách 50% không có cơ sở của Trung Quốc và yêu sách của Việt Nam dựa trên các nguyên tắc của luật quốc tế.

Hiện nay, Trung Quốc cũng có những yêu sách trên biển dọc theo đường chữ U mà họ cũng không đưa ra cơ sở pháp lý để biện minh. Chiến thuật của Trung Quốc là đưa ra yêu sách không thể có cơ sở để thách giá, nhằm sau khi mặc cả họ sẽ đạt được nhiều hơn những gì hợp lý.

Với cách tiếp cận đó, khả năng là Trung Quốc cũng không đưa ra cơ sở cho yêu sách của họ trong cuộc đàm phán phân định khu vực ngoài cửa Vịnh Bắc Bộ.

Yếu tố thứ nhì, khả năng là Trung Quốc sẽ không thật sự muốn phân định khu vực này theo các nguyên tắc của luật quốc tế. Lý do là việc áp dụng các nguyên tắc của luật quốc tế cho việc phân định trong phần chính của Biển Đông sẽ bất lợi cho các yêu sách về biển dọc theo đường chữ U, vốn đã không thể đứng vững trước luật quốc tế.

Vì vậy, Trung Quốc sẽ gây sức ép Việt Nam vào phương pháp “cùng khai thác” thay vì phân định.

Tàu khảo sát Viking II

Các vụ Trung Quốc phá cáp đã xảy ra trong quá khứ

Chồng lấn hay không?

Hai yếu tố đó sẽ làm cho cuộc đàm phán rất khó khăn.

Trong bối cảnh đó, việc tàu thuyền Trung Quốc vượt trung tuyến để đánh cá bên Việt Nam nói chung, việc Trung Quốc cản trở các hoạt động dầu khí của Việt Nam trong khu vực này nói chung, cũng như sự kiện cắt cáp này nói riêng, nằm trong chiến thuật của Trung Quốc để gây sức ép lên Việt Nam trong cuộc đàm phán.

Thông điệp của họ là “Nếu các anh không nhượng bộ trước yêu sách của chúng tôi thì những việc này sẽ tiếp tục xảy ra”.

Ngoài việc gây sức ép cho cuộc đàm phán, trong khi cuộc đàm phán còn kéo dài thì Trung Quốc cũng có mục đích khai thác tài nguyên ở bên phía Việt Nam của đường trung tuyến.

Tuy nhiên, dù hai bên còn đang đàm phán ranh giới cho khu vực này đi nữa, có thể nói rằng điểm cắt cáp nằm trong vùng có yêu sách chồng lấn hay không?

Điểm này nằm cách đảo Cồn Cỏ 43 hải lý, đất liền Việt Nam 54 hải lý và đảo Hải Nam 75 hải lý. Nếu lấy đường trung tuyến vạch với đảo Cồn Cỏ được 50% hiệu lực làm ranh giới biển thì ranh giới sẽ nằm cách đảo Cồn Cỏ 55 hải lý, đất liền Việt Nam 66 hải lý và đảo Hải Nam 63 hải lý.

Đành rằng là tồn tại tranh chấp, nhưng chỉ có thể hợp lý nếu các yêu sách đối kháng chỉ xê dịch chút ít hai bên đường trung tuyến.

Nơi xảy ra vụ cắt cáp 30/11

Dấu (X) là địa điểm xảy ra vụ cắt cáp hôm 30/11

Hoàn toàn không có cơ sở pháp lý nào để Trung Quốc cho rằng họ phải được nhiều hơn Việt Nam ít nhất là 20 hải lý (khoảng 37 km). Không một người Việt nào có thể chấp nhận được điều đó. Không bất cứ ai trên thế giới có tinh thần công bằng có thể cho đó là hợp lý.

Việt Nam cần phải làm sáng tỏ về vấn đề này với thế giới nói chung và với người Trung Quốc nói riêng.

Người phát ngôn Bộ Ngoại giao phải trình bày cụ thể, không được nói chung chung. Bộ Ngoại giao cần có một trang mạng về vấn đề này, như trang mạng của Bộ Ngoại giao Philippines về vấn đề bãi cạn Scarborough, để các chính khách, học giả, nhà bình luận, nhà báo trên thế giới có thể tham khảo.

Nếu Trung Quốc có những hành động và tuyên bố không hợp lý như trong sự kiện cắt cáp này, Việt Nam phải làm cho thế giới thấy rõ, ít nhất đó như là một giá phải trả nào đó cho những những hành động và tuyên bố đó.

Nếu không thì sẽ hoàn toàn có lợi cho Trung Quốc khi họ tiếp tục làm như thế. Không những thế, một số học giả và nhà bình luận trên thế giới không hiểu vấn đề sẽ cho rằng Việt Nam là bên gây sự với các hoạt động dầu khí đơn phương trong vùng tranh chấp.

Đi xa hơn nữa, Việt Nam nên công bố yêu sách và cơ sở pháp lý của mình trong khu vực này, để thế giới có thể thấy yêu sách của Việt Nam có công bằng hay không, và từ đó có thể kết luận về yêu sách của Trung Quốc.

Với cách tiếp cận thiếu thiện chí của Trung Quốc và sức mạnh của họ, khả năng là cuộc đàm phán sẽ có một trong ba kết quả: bế tắc, hoặc một ranh giới không công bằng cho Việt Nam, hoặc một thỏa thuận khai thác chung có thể là công bằng hay không công bằng cho Việt Nam.

Nếu Việt Nam muốn điều khác mà Trung Quốc vẫn không đàm phán nghiêm túc, Việt Nam cần phải nghiên cứu và tiến hành việc đưa tranh chấp ra một trọng tài quốc tế.

"Hoàn toàn không có cơ sở pháp lý nào để Trung Quốc cho rằng họ phải được nhiều hơn Việt Nam ít nhất là 20 hải lý (khoảng 37 km). Không một người Việt nào có thể chấp nhận được điều đó. Không bất cứ ai trên thế giới có tinh thần công bằng có thể cho đó là hợp lý."

Mặc dù Trung Quốc không chấp nhận thẩm quyền của Tòa án Công lý Quốc tế cho việc phân xử tranh chấp này, và măc dù Trung Quốc đã bảo lưu không chấp nhận thủ tục giải quyết tranh chấp của UNCLOS cho việc phân định biển, vì khu vực này nằm cách xa quần đảo Hoàng Sa, trên nguyên tắc của UNCLOS nếu Việt Nam yêu cầu thì Trung Quốc phải chấp nhận cùng đưa vấn đề ra một Ủy ban hòa giải UNCLOS.

Tuy rằng kết luận của Ủy ban hòa giải UNCLOS không có tính ràng buộc pháp lý cho việc phân định, kết luận đó sẽ hữu dụng cho Việt Nam trong những sự kiện như sự kiện cắt cáp này.

Ngoài ra nếu dù kết luận của Ủy ban hòa giải UNCLOS không có tính ràng buộc pháp lý cho việc phân định, kết luận đó cũng sẽ làm cho Trung Quốc bớt quá lố về những hành vi và tuyên bố vượt đường trung tuyến.

Đây không phải là lần đầu tiên tàu thuyền Trung Quốc cắt hay cố gắng cắt cáp địa chấn tàu khảo sát Việt Nam. Việt Nam cần tự hỏi rằng, sau các sự kiện cắt cáp Bình Minh 02, Viking II năm 2011, lúc đó Việt Nam có thể làm gì hơn để giảm khả năng những việc đó tái diễn.

Và Việt Nam cần tự hỏi ngày nay sẽ làm gì hơn năm 2011 để giảm khả năng việc cắt cáp tái diễn trong tương lai.

Bài thể hiện quan điểm của hai tác giả, thành viên Quỹ Nghiên cứu Biển Đông.

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